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It raises publishing_day_rate but leaves both unrepaired execution failures open, which the Runbook makes the day's first priority." }, "rank_gap": 0.4, "touches": [ "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "data/autopilot-cost.json", "data/autopilot-actions.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "docs/story-seeds.md", "autopilot/index.html", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml" ], "max_changed_lines": 500, "max_binary_bytes": 5242880, "predicted_usd": 12, "eligibility": { "candidate_id": "lane-f-close-postfix-failures-20260907", "title": null, "judged_jst": "2026-09-07", "verdict": "eligible", "halted": false, "reversibility_class": "R0", "criteria": { "reversibility": { "result": "pass", "why": "R0", "class": "R0", "class_source": "lane:F/refresh" }, "boundedness": { "result": "pass", "why": "11 パス・content の範囲内", "scope": "content", "scope_source": "inferred" }, "evidence_age": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日前の観測（declared）", "age_days": 0, "evidence_source": "declared" }, "budget": { "result": "pass", "why": "予測 $12.0000（declared / 上限 $18）", "predicted_usd": 12, "cap_usd": 18, "kind": "repair", "prediction_source": "declared" }, "repeat_guard": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日（上限 7 日 / 実行主体 不要）", "open_days": 0 } }, "reasons": [] }, "evidence": { "source_hash": "0da2fb14e1ee3908d3879d59eb063a3e7157f873728ad50b52594ca3b4bbdd09", "date": "2026-09-07" }, "rollback": { "mode": "revert_static_only", "paths": [] }, "input": { "id": "lane-f-close-postfix-failures-20260907", "run_id": "ap-20260907-actions", "metric": "unresolved_failures", "touches": [ "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "data/autopilot-cost.json", "data/autopilot-actions.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "docs/story-seeds.md", "autopilot/index.html", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml" ], "lane": "F", "action": "maintenance", "evidence_date": "2026-09-07", "predicted_usd": 12, "predicted_delta": -2, "p": 0.05, "horizon_days": 1, "max_changed_lines": 500, "counterfactual": { "id": "lane-e-compare-memos-20260907", "reason": "The runner-up ships coverage-queue C10 (/obsidian/compare/memos/). It raises publishing_day_rate but leaves both unrepaired execution failures open, which the Runbook makes the day's first priority." }, "rank_gap": 0.4 }, "selection": { "selected": "lane-f-close-postfix-failures-20260907", "reason": "ranked_first", "exploration": false, "calibration": { "version": 1, "snapshot_sha256": "f6f3b96d3e0504465e06dbf33791fd8245e11339889693cbae5ecc925bdeab70", "settled": 1 } }, "candidates": [ { "id": "lane-f-close-postfix-failures-20260907", "run_id": "ap-20260907-actions", "rank": 1, "metric": "unresolved_failures", "predicted_delta": -2, "p": 0.05, "horizon_days": 1, "lane": "F", "action": "maintenance", "counterfactual": { "id": "lane-e-compare-memos-20260907", "reason": "The runner-up ships coverage-queue C10 (/obsidian/compare/memos/). It raises publishing_day_rate but leaves both unrepaired execution failures open, which the Runbook makes the day's first priority." }, "rank_gap": 0.4, "touches": [ "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "data/autopilot-cost.json", "data/autopilot-actions.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "docs/story-seeds.md", "autopilot/index.html", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml" ], "max_changed_lines": 500, "predicted_usd": 12, "evidence_date": "2026-09-07", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "f6f3b96d3e0504465e06dbf33791fd8245e11339889693cbae5ecc925bdeab70", "reason": "Only one settlement exists (coverage-queue-collision-fix-20260905, publishing_day_rate, p=0.30, event=1, Brier 0.49): that single point says the previous session under-stated its probability, so it argues for higher confidence on shipping-type claims, not lower. It says nothing about unresolved_failures, which has n=0 settlements. I therefore set p from the metric's own arithmetic rather than from history: today's measured baseline is 6 unrepaired failures, four of which are usage_limit rows that escalation-rules routes to the owner and that policy forbids me to name in repair_of, so the count cannot fall below 4. The frozen null forecast is the 14-day trailing median 2.5, and settlement scores actual against that null, so the event needs actual < 2.5 - arithmetically out of reach within the 1-day horizon. p=0.05 rather than 0 only because I have never watched this reader settle and cannot rule out a definition difference I have mis-read. The declared delta of -2 is the honest size of today's own effect (6 to 4); I rank this first despite the near-certain loss because the Runbook makes lane F the first priority whenever repair targets remain, not because the metric favours it." }, "kind": "repair" }, { "id": "lane-e-compare-memos-20260907", "run_id": "ap-20260907-actions", "rank": 0.6, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.7, "horizon_days": 1, "lane": "E", "action": "new", "counterfactual": { "id": "lane-f-close-postfix-failures-20260907", "reason": "The alternative spends the day closing the two unrepaired execution failures instead of publishing, which the Runbook ranks ahead of any article while repair targets remain." }, "rank_gap": 0.4, "touches": [ "obsidian/compare/memos/index.html", "data/content-graph.json", "growth/content/coverage-queue.json", "data/distribution-queue.json", "assets/img/og/obsidian-compare-memos.png", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md" ], "max_changed_lines": 1200, "predicted_usd": 8, "evidence_date": "2026-09-04", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "f6f3b96d3e0504465e06dbf33791fd8245e11339889693cbae5ecc925bdeab70", "reason": "The single settled decision is the closest analogue available: coverage-queue-collision-fix-20260905 predicted publishing_day_rate with p=0.30 and the event happened (Brier 0.49), i.e. the one time this operation predicted its own publishing it was too pessimistic. Two of the last three days did publish (PR #1024 on 09-06, PR #1040 on 09-06), while the frozen null forecast is 0, so the bar is simply 'publish once today'. I set p=0.70 rather than higher because the two most recent main-lane article attempts did not reach a merge (run 33959414641 produced no PR, run 33996430959 exhausted its turns at 251), and C10 requires self-hosting memos in this container, which is unverified work that has failed to finish inside one session before. I rank it second: it is the stronger metric bet, but it leaves the two open execution failures unrepaired, and the Runbook is explicit that repair outranks an article on such a day." }, "kind": "article" } ] }, "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "ececffc2b0abe5090099b0a2c43af1eec3a8c38e6b1dbff81a6fdcfdb8ce82fd", "merge_sha": "3f3fe92f94937d71cd886c4cca28a09d02270ba3", "declaration_sha": "1831da644207cf7da5d48c162d2d0ab927e09547", "deployed_at": "2026-09-06T23:10:25Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/b7f4042b-0a70-46f3-a76b-981b9f6b5418", "pr": 1051 }, "settlement": { "state": "settled", "settled_at": "2026-09-08T15:03:27.328Z", "actual": 4, "delta": 1.5, "event": 0, "brier": 0.0025000000000000005, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-08", "value": 4, "n": 55, "reason": null } ], "observation_hash": "b48a089cdb51b1a737f98de1d111abc279832f372aac3a5a54d7fd21cc788bcc", "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "ececffc2b0abe5090099b0a2c43af1eec3a8c38e6b1dbff81a6fdcfdb8ce82fd", "merge_sha": "3f3fe92f94937d71cd886c4cca28a09d02270ba3", "declaration_sha": "1831da644207cf7da5d48c162d2d0ab927e09547", "deployed_at": "2026-09-06T23:10:25Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/b7f4042b-0a70-46f3-a76b-981b9f6b5418", "pr": 1051 }, "due_after_jst": "2026-09-08", "note": "Directional calibration against the frozen null model; not a causal estimate." } }, { "id": "memos-comparison-c10-20260908", "run_id": "ap-20260908-actions-codex-01a07dad-42f9-72e2-897c-221062dc0f2b", "horizon_days": 1, "intent": { "id": "memos-comparison-c10-20260908", "run_id": "ap-20260908-actions-codex-01a07dad-42f9-72e2-897c-221062dc0f2b", "created_at": "2026-09-07T21:10:16.441Z", "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "metric_policy_hash": "2cab4a44b192de519158921c6ea4eca81015ea18dc784514693a35604ffd30c3", "baseline": 0, "baseline_date": "2026-09-07", "null_model": { "kind": "trailing_median", "value": 0, "n": 14, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-07", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-06", "value": 1, "n": 4, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "value": 0, "n": 4, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "value": 1, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-03", "value": 1, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-30", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-29", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "value": 1, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-27", "value": 1, "n": 3, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "value": 1, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-25", "value": 0, "n": 3, "reason": null } ] }, "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.55, "horizon_days": 1, 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"eligible", "halted": false, "reversibility_class": "R1", "criteria": { "reversibility": { "result": "pass", "why": "R1", "class": "R1", "class_source": "declared" }, "boundedness": { "result": "pass", "why": "20 パス・content の範囲内", "scope": "content", "scope_source": "declared" }, "evidence_age": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日前の観測（declared）", "age_days": 0, "evidence_source": "declared" }, "budget": { "result": "pass", "why": "予測 $20.0000（declared / 上限 $20）", "predicted_usd": 20, "cap_usd": 20, "kind": "article", "prediction_source": "declared" }, "repeat_guard": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日（上限 7 日 / 実行主体 不要）", "open_days": 0 } }, "reasons": [] }, "evidence": { "source_hash": "acaa1776ecf46b5cf26a19d10fffd20ae046a72189a770994768a59767b70f32", "date": "2026-09-08" }, "rollback": { "mode": "revert_static_only", "paths": [ "obsidian/compare/memos/index.html", "obsidian/compare/index.html", "obsidian/index.html", "assets/img/og/obsidian-memos.png", "assets/img/qr-obsidian-memos-ja.svg", "assets/img/qr-obsidian-memos-en.svg", "assets/img/obsidian/memos-home.png", "assets/img/obsidian/memos-note.png" ] }, "input": { "id": "memos-comparison-c10-20260908", "run_id": "ap-20260908-actions-codex-01a07dad-42f9-72e2-897c-221062dc0f2b", "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "touches": [ "obsidian/compare/memos/index.html", "obsidian/compare/index.html", "obsidian/index.html", "growth/content/coverage-queue.json", "data/content-graph.json", "data/distribution-queue.json", "assets/img/og/obsidian-memos.png", "assets/img/qr-obsidian-memos-ja.svg", "assets/img/qr-obsidian-memos-en.svg", "assets/img/obsidian/memos-home.png", "assets/img/obsidian/memos-note.png", "docs/obsidian/evidence/memos-20260908.md", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "autopilot/index.html" ], "lane": "E", "action": "new", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "reversibility_class": "R1", "evidence_date": "2026-09-08", "predicted_usd": 20, "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.55, "horizon_days": 1, "max_changed_lines": 1500, "counterfactual": { "id": "landing-maintenance-20260908", "reason": "着地面検査は現時点で異常なし。pending先頭C10はセルフホスト可能なOSSで、実操作を根拠に未掲載比較を埋められるため優先する。" }, "rank_gap": 0.35000000000000003, "scope": "content", "max_binary_bytes": 5242880 }, "selection": { "selected": "memos-comparison-c10-20260908", "reason": "ranked_first", "exploration": false, "calibration": { "version": 1, "snapshot_sha256": "ee99fffed0c8485c19f9944afba65fdc78a4b11212c0b7fbc1f358e285b92f79", "settled": 2 } }, "candidates": [ { "id": "memos-comparison-c10-20260908", "run_id": "ap-20260908-actions-codex-01a07dad-42f9-72e2-897c-221062dc0f2b", "rank": 0.55, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.55, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "landing-maintenance-20260908", "reason": "着地面検査は現時点で異常なし。pending先頭C10はセルフホスト可能なOSSで、実操作を根拠に未掲載比較を埋められるため優先する。" }, "rank_gap": 0.35000000000000003, "touches": [ "obsidian/compare/memos/index.html", "obsidian/compare/index.html", "obsidian/index.html", "growth/content/coverage-queue.json", "data/content-graph.json", "data/distribution-queue.json", "assets/img/og/obsidian-memos.png", "assets/img/qr-obsidian-memos-ja.svg", "assets/img/qr-obsidian-memos-en.svg", "assets/img/obsidian/memos-home.png", "assets/img/obsidian/memos-note.png", "docs/obsidian/evidence/memos-20260908.md", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "autopilot/index.html" ], "max_changed_lines": 1500, "max_binary_bytes": 5242880, "predicted_usd": 20, "lane": "E", "action": "new", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "reversibility_class": "R1", "scope": "content", "kind": "article", "evidence_date": "2026-09-08", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "ee99fffed0c8485c19f9944afba65fdc78a4b11212c0b7fbc1f358e285b92f79", "reason": "publishing_day_rate の関連決済は2件だけで、p=0.3の成功とp=0.7の不成功が各1件、平均Brierは0.49で較正実績は弱い。C10はキュー先頭かつOSSで実測可能だが、実機起動、20パス以内の配送、最終HEAD CIと本番確認が未完なので成功確率を0.55に抑えた。" } }, { "id": "landing-maintenance-20260908", "run_id": "ap-20260908-actions-codex-01a07dad-42f9-72e2-897c-221062dc0f2b", "rank": 0.2, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 0, "p": 0.1, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "memos-comparison-c10-20260908", "reason": "保守検査だけなら可逆で低コストだが、着地面は現在正常で、pendingのC10を残すため今日の既定アクションには劣る。" }, "rank_gap": 0.35000000000000003, "touches": [ "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "autopilot/index.html" ], "max_changed_lines": 400, "predicted_usd": 2, "lane": "F", "action": "maintenance", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "reversibility_class": "R1", "scope": "content", "kind": "repair", "evidence_date": "2026-09-08", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "ee99fffed0c8485c19f9944afba65fdc78a4b11212c0b7fbc1f358e285b92f79", "reason": "publishing_day_rate の関連決済2件は相反し、保守だけでは本日の公開率を上げない。着地面検査が正常でselfheal対象も無いため、p=0.1として比較対象に留める。" } } ] }, "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "4f8249ea10bde7b47f6fb6884ff5604e28fc0b1206ac76e38f9cb26e96bd0b03", "merge_sha": "7747c0597d4c710f50d90f53784987b319daff78", "declaration_sha": "391e0d8301ff41106b976ee83051e65039020a91", "deployed_at": "2026-09-07T22:06:16Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/73def47c-2827-4ed9-9a32-918b0b33c261", "pr": 1116 }, "settlement": { "state": "settled", "settled_at": "2026-09-09T16:18:52.275Z", "actual": 0, "delta": 0, "event": 0, "brier": 0.30250000000000005, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-09", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null } ], "observation_hash": "47ecbde08cbdcbd943f709ef92994117c5af92bd37520267156d17abf5367a78", "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "4f8249ea10bde7b47f6fb6884ff5604e28fc0b1206ac76e38f9cb26e96bd0b03", "merge_sha": "7747c0597d4c710f50d90f53784987b319daff78", "declaration_sha": "391e0d8301ff41106b976ee83051e65039020a91", "deployed_at": "2026-09-07T22:06:16Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/73def47c-2827-4ed9-9a32-918b0b33c261", "pr": 1116 }, "due_after_jst": "2026-09-09", "note": "Directional calibration against the frozen null model; not a causal estimate." } }, { "id": "coverage-executable-fallback-20260911-1220", "run_id": "ap-20260911-ccr-0920-codex-01a08e7c-1a0e-7003-b3af-fb72dfc4ef9a", "horizon_days": 1, "intent": { "id": "coverage-executable-fallback-20260911-1220", "run_id": "ap-20260911-ccr-0920-codex-01a08e7c-1a0e-7003-b3af-fb72dfc4ef9a", "created_at": "2026-09-11T03:50:48.490Z", "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "metric_policy_hash": "2cab4a44b192de519158921c6ea4eca81015ea18dc784514693a35604ffd30c3", "baseline": 0, "baseline_date": "2026-09-10", "null_model": { "kind": "trailing_median", "value": 0, "n": 14, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-10", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "value": 1, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-06", "value": 1, "n": 4, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "value": 0, "n": 4, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "value": 1, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-03", "value": 1, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-30", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-29", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "value": 1, "n": 2, "reason": null } ] }, "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.35, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": 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"cap_usd": 18, "kind": "repair", "prediction_source": "declared" }, "repeat_guard": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日（上限 7 日 / 実行主体 不要）", "open_days": 0 } }, "reasons": [] }, "evidence": { "source_hash": "c04f8eda2d3e3b6f28961016d64067fbdb953765d8682aa92f63c9a7b46f226c", "date": "2026-09-11" }, "rollback": { "mode": "revert_static_only", "paths": [] }, "input": { "id": "coverage-executable-fallback-20260911-1220", "run_id": "ap-20260911-ccr-0920-codex-01a08e7c-1a0e-7003-b3af-fb72dfc4ef9a", "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "touches": [ "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_RUNBOOK.md", "data/kpi-definitions.json" ], "lane": "F", "kind": "repair", "action": "maintenance", "evidence_date": "2026-09-11", "predicted_usd": 18, "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.35, "horizon_days": 1, "max_changed_lines": 140, "counterfactual": { "id": "coverage-prerequisite-probe-20260911-1220", "reason": "A lightweight prerequisite probe is more mechanical, but it adds code and test surface before the fallback policy is explicit." }, "rank_gap": 0.20000000000000007 }, "selection": { "selected": "coverage-executable-fallback-20260911-1220", "reason": "ranked_first", "exploration": false, "calibration": { "version": 1, "snapshot_sha256": "d142f2980ae8824596dca483e1b73d1f2659e8cbbe079ae7974a7e3bf017d647", "settled": 4 } }, "candidates": [ { "id": "coverage-executable-fallback-20260911-1220", "run_id": "ap-20260911-ccr-0920-codex-01a08e7c-1a0e-7003-b3af-fb72dfc4ef9a", "rank": 0.55, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.35, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "coverage-prerequisite-probe-20260911-1220", "reason": "A lightweight prerequisite probe is more mechanical, but it adds code and test surface before the fallback policy is explicit." }, "rank_gap": 0.20000000000000007, "touches": [ "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_RUNBOOK.md", "data/kpi-definitions.json" ], "max_changed_lines": 140, "predicted_usd": 18, "kind": "repair", "lane": "F", "action": "maintenance", "evidence_date": 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This sparse mixed history does not establish calibration, so p=0.35 remains conservative. Direct evidence is two no-publication days caused by repeatedly selecting C13 while its required Obsidian GUI is absent; an explicit executable fallback can prevent repeated dead-end selection without weakening C13's evidence gate. Because the Runbook is the frozen noise_floor source, its required checksum-only history update is declared too." } }, { "id": "coverage-prerequisite-probe-20260911-1220", "run_id": "ap-20260911-ccr-0920-codex-01a08e7c-1a0e-7003-b3af-fb72dfc4ef9a", "rank": 0.35, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.25, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "coverage-executable-fallback-20260911-1220", "reason": "A Runbook-only fallback is smaller and immediately usable, while a probe adds implementation and classification failure modes." }, "rank_gap": 0.20000000000000007, "touches": [ "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_RUNBOOK.md", "data/kpi-definitions.json", "scripts/autopilot-selfheal.mjs" ], "max_changed_lines": 320, "predicted_usd": 18, "kind": "repair", "lane": "F", "action": "maintenance", "evidence_date": "2026-09-11", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "d142f2980ae8824596dca483e1b73d1f2659e8cbbe079ae7974a7e3bf017d647", "reason": "The same three publishing settlements are sparse and mixed, with two misses at p=0.70 and p=0.55, so the more complex probe receives p=0.25. It could reject candidates whose declared unique value is unavailable in the current environment, but it adds code and classification risk compared with a bounded documented fallback. The Runbook checksum history is declared because both candidates touch that frozen KPI source." } } ] }, "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "255004c2ba8058fd7c3022539d741ecfb2caf62d28d47c66a545f4f1bc3324c3", "merge_sha": "95bda7c7f4f3e34579b1da980ba9b3482b4e07b1", "declaration_sha": "e61969b49342d36d35ffb151d324d84ef8cb2fe4", "deployed_at": "2026-09-11T04:04:16Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/3aa3769e-a56f-4963-b2ed-810c1082e6d6", "pr": 1237 }, "settlement": { "state": "settled", "settled_at": "2026-09-13T02:53:21.595Z", "actual": 0, "delta": 0, "event": 0, "brier": 0.12249999999999998, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-12", "value": 0, "n": 3, "reason": null } ], "observation_hash": "0f24be5505bf41268411f668340e814b8b7bd9b87680ceeda6efbc34d8d17c50", "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "255004c2ba8058fd7c3022539d741ecfb2caf62d28d47c66a545f4f1bc3324c3", "merge_sha": "95bda7c7f4f3e34579b1da980ba9b3482b4e07b1", "declaration_sha": "e61969b49342d36d35ffb151d324d84ef8cb2fe4", "deployed_at": "2026-09-11T04:04:16Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/3aa3769e-a56f-4963-b2ed-810c1082e6d6", "pr": 1237 }, "due_after_jst": "2026-09-12", "note": "Directional calibration against the frozen null model; not a causal estimate." } }, { "id": "journaling-c16-20260914", "run_id": "ap-20260914-actions-codex-01a09c93-4c00-78c0-9d0f-f47136880182", "horizon_days": 1, "intent": { "id": "journaling-c16-20260914", "run_id": "ap-20260914-actions-codex-01a09c93-4c00-78c0-9d0f-f47136880182", "created_at": "2026-09-13T21:09:30.007Z", "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "metric_policy_hash": "2cab4a44b192de519158921c6ea4eca81015ea18dc784514693a35604ffd30c3", "baseline": 0, "baseline_date": "2026-09-13", "null_model": { "kind": "trailing_median", "value": 0, "n": 14, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-13", "value": 0, "n": 3, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "value": 0, "n": 3, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "value": 1, "n": 3, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-06", "value": 1, "n": 4, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "value": 0, "n": 4, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "value": 1, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-03", "value": 1, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null } ] }, "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.25, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "ai-plugins-c18-20260914", "reason": "C16 is the first queue entry with reusable evidence: the historical Linux dated-Markdown roundtrip and existing manual starter. 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No new GUI claim." }, "rank_gap": 0.2, "scope": "content", "max_binary_bytes": 5242880 }, "selection": { "selected": "journaling-c16-20260914", "reason": "ranked_first", "exploration": false, "calibration": { "version": 1, "snapshot_sha256": "70ab4512384e7f32d2977fb11edd207f7b14dfff8d8c52d2e2dfcad4fd626d03", "settled": 5 } }, "candidates": [ { "id": "journaling-c16-20260914", "run_id": "ap-20260914-actions-codex-01a09c93-4c00-78c0-9d0f-f47136880182", "rank": 0.65, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.25, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "ai-plugins-c18-20260914", "reason": "C16 is the first queue entry with reusable evidence: the historical Linux dated-Markdown roundtrip and existing manual starter. No new GUI claim." }, "rank_gap": 0.2, "touches": [ "obsidian/index.html", "data/content-graph.json", "growth/content/coverage-queue.json", "data/distribution-queue.json", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "autopilot/index.html", "data/autopilot-actions.json", "docs/story-seeds.md", "obsidian/journaling/index.html", "obsidian/daily-note/index.html", "assets/img/og/obsidian-journaling.png", "docs/obsidian/evidence/journaling-20260914.md" ], "max_changed_lines": 1500, "max_binary_bytes": 5242880, "predicted_usd": 20, "lane": "E", "action": "new", "kind": "article", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "scope": "content", "reversibility_class": "R1", "evidence_date": "2026-09-14", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "70ab4512384e7f32d2977fb11edd207f7b14dfff8d8c52d2e2dfcad4fd626d03", "reason": "C16 is the first queue entry with reusable evidence: the historical Linux dated-Markdown roundtrip and existing manual starter. No new GUI claim. Publishing-day settlements: p=.30/event=1; p=.70,.55,.35/event=0; n=4, mean Brier .35125. This approved metric concerns subsequent publishing continuity, not this shipment or search uplift. Tomorrow remains uncertain, so probability is low; this reference does not prove learning." } }, { "id": "ai-plugins-c18-20260914", "run_id": "ap-20260914-actions-codex-01a09c93-4c00-78c0-9d0f-f47136880182", "rank": 0.45, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.2, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "journaling-c16-20260914", "reason": "C18 can compare official data-path documentation but is later in the queue, and current source revalidation remains." }, "rank_gap": 0.2, "touches": [ "obsidian/index.html", "data/content-graph.json", "growth/content/coverage-queue.json", "data/distribution-queue.json", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "autopilot/index.html", "data/autopilot-actions.json", "docs/story-seeds.md", "obsidian/ai-plugins/index.html", "obsidian/daily-note/index.html", "assets/img/og/obsidian-ai-plugins.png", "docs/obsidian/evidence/ai-plugins-20260914.md" ], "max_changed_lines": 1500, "max_binary_bytes": 5242880, "predicted_usd": 20, "lane": "E", "action": "new", "kind": "article", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "scope": "content", "reversibility_class": "R1", "evidence_date": "2026-09-14", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "70ab4512384e7f32d2977fb11edd207f7b14dfff8d8c52d2e2dfcad4fd626d03", "reason": "C18 can compare official data-path documentation but is later in the queue, and current source revalidation remains. Publishing-day settlements: p=.30/event=1; p=.70,.55,.35/event=0; n=4, mean Brier .35125. This approved metric concerns subsequent publishing continuity, not this shipment or search uplift. Tomorrow remains uncertain, so probability is low; this reference does not prove learning." } } ] }, "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "cdf06e6e9845d8a8e7ba9eecf067903832557b3a9df3614614083db8c123ca94", "merge_sha": "a14eb9400dfa73d5bea5ba39421f66aaf997892e", "declaration_sha": "7b9e8554edf33e0783740919f533aa716c1a9bca", "deployed_at": "2026-09-13T21:43:58Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/6271f37f-3c88-4569-9db1-54ec0a0835d9", "pr": 1342 }, "settlement": { "state": "settled", "settled_at": "2026-09-15T15:05:48.046Z", "actual": 0, "delta": 0, "event": 0, "brier": 0.0625, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-15", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null } ], "observation_hash": "418d5600c6c2830472de36f626048acd8afbcebc79db1f600e0fa51a2bfc038b", "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "cdf06e6e9845d8a8e7ba9eecf067903832557b3a9df3614614083db8c123ca94", "merge_sha": "a14eb9400dfa73d5bea5ba39421f66aaf997892e", "declaration_sha": "7b9e8554edf33e0783740919f533aa716c1a9bca", "deployed_at": "2026-09-13T21:43:58Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/6271f37f-3c88-4569-9db1-54ec0a0835d9", "pr": 1342 }, "due_after_jst": "2026-09-15", "note": "Directional calibration against the frozen null model; not a causal estimate." } }, { "id": "lane-f-scan-blocker-class-20260919", "run_id": "ap-20260919-actions-35415451723", "horizon_days": 1, "intent": { "id": "lane-f-scan-blocker-class-20260919", "run_id": "ap-20260919-actions-35415451723", "created_at": "2026-09-19T02:26:55.886Z", "metric": "unresolved_failures", "metric_policy_hash": "e9231c76405ea418ed793621b135370e269e1de09555cb6a67fb5e2afa200bcc", "baseline": 8, "baseline_date": "2026-09-18", "null_model": { "kind": "trailing_median", "value": 5, "n": 14, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "value": 8, "n": 73, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "value": 7, "n": 72, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-16", "value": 6, "n": 70, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "value": 5, "n": 68, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "value": 5, "n": 67, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "value": 5, "n": 66, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "value": 5, "n": 63, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "value": 5, "n": 60, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "value": 6, "n": 59, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "value": 5, "n": 57, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "value": 5, "n": 56, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-07", "value": 4, "n": 53, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-06", "value": 6, "n": 52, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "value": 5, "n": 48, "reason": null } ] }, "predicted_delta": -1, "p": 0.03, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "lane-e-ai-plugins-c18-20260919", "reason": "The runner-up ships coverage-queue C18 (/obsidian/ai-plugins/), whose unique value is a privacy table built only from official sources and therefore needs no GUI. It would move publishing_day_rate, but it leaves ap-20260915 unrepaired, and the Runbook makes repair the first priority on any day a repairable failure is open." }, "rank_gap": 0.21999999999999997, "touches": [ "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_RUNBOOK.md", "data/kpi-definitions.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "data/autopilot-actions.json", "data/autopilot-actions-report.json", "data/autonomy-score-history.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "autopilot/index.html", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml" ], "max_changed_lines": 500, "max_binary_bytes": 5242880, "predicted_usd": 14, "eligibility": { "candidate_id": "lane-f-scan-blocker-class-20260919", "title": null, "judged_jst": "2026-09-19", "verdict": "eligible", "halted": false, "reversibility_class": "R0", "criteria": { "reversibility": { "result": "pass", "why": "R0", "class": "R0", "class_source": "lane:F/refresh" }, "boundedness": { "result": "pass", "why": "13 パス・content の範囲内", "scope": "content", "scope_source": "inferred" }, "evidence_age": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日前の観測（declared）", "age_days": 0, "evidence_source": "declared" }, "budget": { "result": "pass", "why": "予測 $14.0000（declared / 上限 $18）", "predicted_usd": 14, "cap_usd": 18, "kind": "repair", "prediction_source": "declared" }, "repeat_guard": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日（上限 7 日 / 実行主体 不要）", "open_days": 0 } }, "reasons": [] }, "evidence": { "source_hash": "55e6afa48b21626eb47f2e14467f7894fe06411fbd5e8250601bf10fabd2741b", "date": "2026-09-19" }, "rollback": { "mode": "revert_static_only", "paths": [] }, "input": { "id": "lane-f-scan-blocker-class-20260919", "run_id": "ap-20260919-actions-35415451723", "metric": "unresolved_failures", "touches": [ "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_RUNBOOK.md", "data/kpi-definitions.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "data/autopilot-actions.json", "data/autopilot-actions-report.json", "data/autonomy-score-history.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "autopilot/index.html", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml" ], "lane": "F", "kind": "repair", "action": "maintenance", "evidence_date": "2026-09-19", "predicted_usd": 14, "predicted_delta": -1, "p": 0.03, "horizon_days": 1, "max_changed_lines": 500, "counterfactual": { "id": "lane-e-ai-plugins-c18-20260919", "reason": "The runner-up ships coverage-queue C18 (/obsidian/ai-plugins/), whose unique value is a privacy table built only from official sources and therefore needs no GUI. It would move publishing_day_rate, but it leaves ap-20260915 unrepaired, and the Runbook makes repair the first priority on any day a repairable failure is open." }, "rank_gap": 0.21999999999999997 }, "selection": { "selected": "lane-f-scan-blocker-class-20260919", "reason": "ranked_first", "exploration": false, "calibration": { "version": 1, "snapshot_sha256": "2771260b0f12d02ece806a5d54563a8349f2590e050185f8ab87b65e77b6f102", "settled": 6 } }, "candidates": [ { "id": "lane-f-scan-blocker-class-20260919", "run_id": "ap-20260919-actions-35415451723", "rank": 0.62, "metric": "unresolved_failures", "predicted_delta": -1, "p": 0.03, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "lane-e-ai-plugins-c18-20260919", "reason": "The runner-up ships coverage-queue C18 (/obsidian/ai-plugins/), whose unique value is a privacy table built only from official sources and therefore needs no GUI. It would move publishing_day_rate, but it leaves ap-20260915 unrepaired, and the Runbook makes repair the first priority on any day a repairable failure is open." }, "rank_gap": 0.21999999999999997, "touches": [ "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_RUNBOOK.md", "data/kpi-definitions.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "data/autopilot-actions.json", "data/autopilot-actions-report.json", "data/autonomy-score-history.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "autopilot/index.html", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml" ], "max_changed_lines": 500, "predicted_usd": 14, "kind": "repair", "lane": "F", "action": "maintenance", "evidence_date": "2026-09-19", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "2771260b0f12d02ece806a5d54563a8349f2590e050185f8ab87b65e77b6f102", "reason": "unresolved_failures has exactly one settlement: lane-f-close-postfix-failures-20260907 declared delta -2 at p=0.05 and settled event=0 with Brier 0.0025. Its own note explained why, and the same arithmetic holds harder today. Settlement scores the actual count against the frozen null forecast, which is 5. Today's measured baseline is 8, and six of those eight rows are usage_limit failures that data/escalation-rules.json routes to the owner and that policy forbids me from naming in repair_of, so the count cannot fall below 6 no matter what I repair. New usage_limit rows have appeared on 09-16, 09-18 and 09-19, so the floor is still rising. I therefore declare the honest size of today's own effect, -1, which is the single repairable row ap-20260915 (no_artifact), and set p=0.03 rather than 0 only because I have never watched this reader settle myself and cannot fully exclude a definition difference. I rank this first despite the near-certain loss because the Runbook makes lane F outrank an article whenever a repairable failure is open, not because the metric favours it. I did not borrow the publishing_day_rate history for this p: those five settlements measure a different reader." } }, { "id": "lane-e-ai-plugins-c18-20260919", "run_id": "ap-20260919-actions-35415451723", "rank": 0.4, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.2, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "lane-f-scan-blocker-class-20260919", "reason": "The lane F repair closes the only repairable open failure and removes the scan-stop rule that produced two no-artifact days, but it publishes no page and so cannot move publishing_day_rate." }, "rank_gap": 0.21999999999999997, "touches": [ "obsidian/ai-plugins/index.html", "data/content-graph.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_RUNBOOK.md", "data/kpi-definitions.json", "growth/content/coverage-queue.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md", "autopilot/index.html", "sitemap.xml", "sitemap-ja.xml", "sitemap-en.xml", "sitemap-locales.xml" ], "max_changed_lines": 900, "predicted_usd": 16, "kind": "content", "lane": "E", "action": "new", "evidence_date": "2026-09-19", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "2771260b0f12d02ece806a5d54563a8349f2590e050185f8ab87b65e77b6f102", "reason": "publishing_day_rate now has five settlements and they are uniformly discouraging for high probabilities: p=0.70 (capacities-owner-recovery-20260906) event=0, p=0.55 (memos-comparison-c10-20260908) event=0, p=0.35 (coverage-executable-fallback-20260911) event=0, p=0.25 (journaling-c16-20260914) event=0, and the only event=1 came from the lowest forecast, p=0.30 (coverage-queue-collision-fix-20260905). Mean Brier is 0.2935, driven almost entirely by the two over-confident forecasts. Notably 09-08 and 09-14 both did merge an article and still settled 0, which tells me the reader scores the horizon day rather than the shipping day, so shipping today is not sufficient for the event. I therefore set p=0.20, below every forecast that has missed. I rank this second: C18 is genuinely executable here because its unique value is a privacy table taken from official plugin documentation and needs no Obsidian GUI, but the Runbook puts repair ahead of an article whenever a repairable failure is open, and one is." } } ] }, "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "bb1ccfecea0723d4df15d7d3a90835a41ece0141745efdcc31793b5032e07f0e", "merge_sha": "94bf6b1c207027a8fd24ceabb6644ff86a068e60", "declaration_sha": "6d12c7cdb5d15a66785dabb90c5affadd573b737", "deployed_at": "2026-09-19T02:35:22Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/38da611b-0b32-46bd-88bb-1d0af8aae292", "pr": 1470 }, "settlement": { "state": "settled", "settled_at": "2026-09-20T15:10:20.418Z", "actual": 8, "delta": 3, "event": 0, "brier": 0.0009, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-20", "value": 8, "n": 78, "reason": null } ], "observation_hash": "eadf1c33e9a5d2c188c39b475a93cdaa81fc343997e0287b3d784e6d60ef1469", "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "bb1ccfecea0723d4df15d7d3a90835a41ece0141745efdcc31793b5032e07f0e", "merge_sha": "94bf6b1c207027a8fd24ceabb6644ff86a068e60", "declaration_sha": "6d12c7cdb5d15a66785dabb90c5affadd573b737", "deployed_at": "2026-09-19T02:35:22Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/38da611b-0b32-46bd-88bb-1d0af8aae292", "pr": 1470 }, "due_after_jst": "2026-09-20", "note": "Directional calibration against the frozen null model; not a causal estimate." } }, { "id": "obsidian-install-intent-20260922-r2", "run_id": "ap-20260922-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca-r2", "horizon_days": 1, "intent": { "id": "obsidian-install-intent-20260922-r2", "run_id": "ap-20260922-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca-r2", "created_at": "2026-09-22T10:26:57.685Z", "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "metric_policy_hash": "2cab4a44b192de519158921c6ea4eca81015ea18dc784514693a35604ffd30c3", "baseline": 0, "baseline_date": "2026-09-21", "null_model": { "kind": "trailing_median", "value": 0, "n": 14, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-21", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-20", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-16", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "value": 1, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "value": 0, "n": 3, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "value": 0, "n": 3, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "value": 1, "n": 3, "reason": null } ] }, "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.15, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "email-yourself-intent-20260922-r2", "reason": "Choose the getting-started guide over email-yourself: 1371 impressions and 9 clicks versus 632 and 10. The existing CTR model estimates about 23 versus 6 additional clicks per 28 days at unchanged impressions, a directional opportunity estimate rather than a forecast or revenue. Both already have substantive September 9 improvements, so keep this intervention small: expose existing official download and OS steps at the top, not another long article. Estimated implementation and validation budget 60 minutes; no new subscription or paid API, actual Codex dollars unavailable. The baseline also crosses the September 19 language-URL separation; retain descriptive interpretation and treat material language/query mix changes as inconclusive." }, "rank_gap": 0.30000000000000004, "touches": [ "obsidian/getting-started/index.html", "sitemap-ja.xml", "data/distribution-queue.json", "docs/story-seeds.md", "growth/experiments/experiments.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "autopilot/index.html", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md" ], "max_changed_lines": 1500, "max_binary_bytes": 0, "predicted_usd": 10, "eligibility": { "candidate_id": "obsidian-install-intent-20260922-r2", "title": null, "judged_jst": "2026-09-22", "verdict": "eligible", "halted": false, "reversibility_class": "R1", "criteria": { "reversibility": { "result": "pass", "why": "R1", "class": "R1", "class_source": "declared" }, "boundedness": { "result": "pass", "why": "9 パス・content の範囲内", "scope": "content", "scope_source": "declared" }, "evidence_age": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日前の観測（declared）", "age_days": 0, "evidence_source": "declared" }, "budget": { "result": "pass", "why": "予測 $10.0000（declared / 上限 $20）", "predicted_usd": 10, "cap_usd": 20, "kind": "article", "prediction_source": "declared" }, "repeat_guard": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日（上限 7 日 / 実行主体 不要）", "open_days": 0 } }, "reasons": [] }, "evidence": { "source_hash": "0fd4f55c822023828c1fabf42ab9b5f62bddc1a74e7f5749d084d414ef72a53f", "date": "2026-09-22" }, "rollback": { "mode": "revert_static_only", "paths": [ "obsidian/getting-started/index.html" ] }, "input": { "id": "obsidian-install-intent-20260922-r2", "run_id": "ap-20260922-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca-r2", "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "touches": [ "obsidian/getting-started/index.html", "sitemap-ja.xml", "data/distribution-queue.json", "docs/story-seeds.md", "growth/experiments/experiments.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "autopilot/index.html", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md" ], "lane": "D", "kind": "article", "action": "refresh", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "reversibility_class": "R1", "evidence_date": "2026-09-22", "predicted_usd": 10, "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.15, "horizon_days": 1, "max_changed_lines": 1500, "counterfactual": { "id": "email-yourself-intent-20260922-r2", "reason": "Choose the getting-started guide over email-yourself: 1371 impressions and 9 clicks versus 632 and 10. The existing CTR model estimates about 23 versus 6 additional clicks per 28 days at unchanged impressions, a directional opportunity estimate rather than a forecast or revenue. Both already have substantive September 9 improvements, so keep this intervention small: expose existing official download and OS steps at the top, not another long article. Estimated implementation and validation budget 60 minutes; no new subscription or paid API, actual Codex dollars unavailable. The baseline also crosses the September 19 language-URL separation; retain descriptive interpretation and treat material language/query mix changes as inconclusive." }, "rank_gap": 0.30000000000000004, "scope": "content", "max_binary_bytes": 0 }, "selection": { "selected": "obsidian-install-intent-20260922-r2", "reason": "ranked_first", "exploration": false, "calibration": { "version": 1, "snapshot_sha256": "72f9ad174eb955c387b74b5fca758b176824438419ef2100033d8bb1e8777499", "settled": 7 } }, "candidates": [ { "id": "obsidian-install-intent-20260922-r2", "run_id": "ap-20260922-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca-r2", "rank": 0.8, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.15, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "email-yourself-intent-20260922-r2", "reason": "Choose the getting-started guide over email-yourself: 1371 impressions and 9 clicks versus 632 and 10. The existing CTR model estimates about 23 versus 6 additional clicks per 28 days at unchanged impressions, a directional opportunity estimate rather than a forecast or revenue. Both already have substantive September 9 improvements, so keep this intervention small: expose existing official download and OS steps at the top, not another long article. Estimated implementation and validation budget 60 minutes; no new subscription or paid API, actual Codex dollars unavailable. The baseline also crosses the September 19 language-URL separation; retain descriptive interpretation and treat material language/query mix changes as inconclusive." }, "touches": [ "obsidian/getting-started/index.html", "sitemap-ja.xml", "data/distribution-queue.json", "docs/story-seeds.md", "growth/experiments/experiments.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "autopilot/index.html", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md" ], "max_changed_lines": 1500, "max_binary_bytes": 0, "predicted_usd": 10, "lane": "D", "kind": "article", "action": "refresh", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "reversibility_class": "R1", "evidence_date": "2026-09-22", "scope": "content", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "72f9ad174eb955c387b74b5fca758b176824438419ef2100033d8bb1e8777499", "reason": "Publishing-day settlements n=5, mean Brier .2935: p=.30/event=1, p=.70,.55,.35,.25/event=0. This metric is subsequent publishing continuity, not same-day delivery or SEO uplift. Recent four misses and active primary stop support a low .15 prediction for tomorrow, with an independent source-frozen GSC experiment for business evaluation. Ranking uses observed demand, not this operational score. Predicted dollars are a planning allowance using prior article scale; actual Codex cost is unobservable and is not recorded as zero." }, "company_decision": { "schema_version": 1, "company_run_id": "6b41f9e5-79d6-425d-92f8-d8da34cbf523", "sha256": "8d23d6f90cf592f67e85c0c048705bbcf50d684b4f30dd7fbd83fe0fc6b4d749" }, "rank_gap": 0.30000000000000004 }, { "id": "email-yourself-intent-20260922-r2", "run_id": "ap-20260922-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca-r2", "rank": 0.5, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.15, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "obsidian-install-intent-20260922-r2", "reason": "The installation guide has larger observed demand and modeled click headroom at similar bounded effort; email-yourself is closer to product intent but already improved on September 9." }, "touches": [ "blog/email-yourself-memo.html", "growth/experiments/experiments.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "autopilot/index.html", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md" ], "max_changed_lines": 1500, "max_binary_bytes": 0, "predicted_usd": 10, "lane": "D", "kind": "article", "action": "refresh", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "reversibility_class": "R1", "evidence_date": "2026-09-22", "scope": "content", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "72f9ad174eb955c387b74b5fca758b176824438419ef2100033d8bb1e8777499", "reason": "Publishing-day settlements n=5, mean Brier .2935: p=.30/event=1, p=.70,.55,.35,.25/event=0. This metric is subsequent publishing continuity, not same-day delivery or SEO uplift. Recent four misses and active primary stop support a low .15 prediction for tomorrow, with an independent source-frozen GSC experiment for business evaluation. Ranking uses observed demand, not this operational score. Predicted dollars are a planning allowance using prior article scale; actual Codex cost is unobservable and is not recorded as zero." }, "rank_gap": 0.30000000000000004 } ] }, "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "63141cf116840d150263755778269dc4342f0418adf116104baf5741a44c608e", "merge_sha": "86b0f26cbe2af2b11158a54d7364473fa0108948", "declaration_sha": "ac7f402135fec8d3865b4d016f788c2ae7c6c439", "deployed_at": "2026-09-22T11:30:32Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/745bd1db-e3bd-4b68-a646-bf30bc0c920f", "pr": 1527 }, "settlement": { "state": "pending", "due_after_jst": "2026-09-23" } }, { "id": "note-to-email-clarity-20260923", "run_id": "ap-20260923-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca", "horizon_days": 1, "intent": { "id": "note-to-email-clarity-20260923", "run_id": "ap-20260923-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca", "created_at": "2026-09-22T15:30:16.768Z", "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "metric_policy_hash": "2cab4a44b192de519158921c6ea4eca81015ea18dc784514693a35604ffd30c3", "baseline": 1, "baseline_date": "2026-09-22", "null_model": { "kind": "trailing_median", "value": 0, "n": 14, "samples": [ { "date": "2026-09-22", "value": 1, "n": 3, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-21", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-20", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-16", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-14", "value": 1, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "value": 0, "n": 3, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "value": 0, "n": 3, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-10", "value": 0, "n": 2, "reason": null }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "value": 0, "n": 1, "reason": null } ] }, "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.15, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "email-yourself-intent-20260923", "reason": "Choose the self-email product guide over an additional email-yourself blog refresh: its observed 549 impressions and 10 clicks represent qualified intent and the visible page still promises inevitable noticing, zero management and completion. At a hypothetical 3 percent CTR its fixed volume allows about 6.47 additional clicks per 28 days, not a forecast or profit. The competing blog has 632 impressions and 10 clicks but already explains setup and receipt checks. Limit implementation plus validation to 90 minutes; no new paid service, actual Codex dollars unavailable. Do not use the zero AIO citation sample as proof of cause or expected conversion." }, "rank_gap": 0.30000000000000004, "touches": [ "note-to-email/index.html", "sitemap-ja.xml", "data/distribution-queue.json", "docs/story-seeds.md", "growth/experiments/experiments.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "autopilot/index.html", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md" ], "max_changed_lines": 1500, "max_binary_bytes": 0, "predicted_usd": 10, "eligibility": { "candidate_id": "note-to-email-clarity-20260923", "title": null, "judged_jst": "2026-09-23", "verdict": "eligible", "halted": false, "reversibility_class": "R1", "criteria": { "reversibility": { "result": "pass", "why": "R1", "class": "R1", "class_source": "declared" }, "boundedness": { "result": "pass", "why": "9 パス・content の範囲内", "scope": "content", "scope_source": "declared" }, "evidence_age": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日前の観測（declared）", "age_days": 0, "evidence_source": "declared" }, "budget": { "result": "pass", "why": "予測 $10.0000（declared / 上限 $20）", "predicted_usd": 10, "cap_usd": 20, "kind": "article", "prediction_source": "declared" }, "repeat_guard": { "result": "pass", "why": "0 日（上限 7 日 / 実行主体 不要）", "open_days": 0 } }, "reasons": [] }, "evidence": { "source_hash": "80324d13e94b13d7a52c4f13dc87621c57582d68f81f161745a94afc304309ba", "date": "2026-09-23" }, "rollback": { "mode": "revert_static_only", "paths": [] }, "input": { "id": "note-to-email-clarity-20260923", "run_id": "ap-20260923-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca", "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "touches": [ "note-to-email/index.html", "sitemap-ja.xml", "data/distribution-queue.json", "docs/story-seeds.md", "growth/experiments/experiments.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "autopilot/index.html", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md" ], "lane": "D", "kind": "article", "action": "refresh", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "reversibility_class": "R1", "evidence_date": "2026-09-23", "predicted_usd": 10, "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.15, "horizon_days": 1, "max_changed_lines": 1500, "counterfactual": { "id": "email-yourself-intent-20260923", "reason": "Choose the self-email product guide over an additional email-yourself blog refresh: its observed 549 impressions and 10 clicks represent qualified intent and the visible page still promises inevitable noticing, zero management and completion. At a hypothetical 3 percent CTR its fixed volume allows about 6.47 additional clicks per 28 days, not a forecast or profit. The competing blog has 632 impressions and 10 clicks but already explains setup and receipt checks. Limit implementation plus validation to 90 minutes; no new paid service, actual Codex dollars unavailable. Do not use the zero AIO citation sample as proof of cause or expected conversion." }, "rank_gap": 0.30000000000000004, "scope": "content", "max_binary_bytes": 0 }, "selection": { "selected": "note-to-email-clarity-20260923", "reason": "ranked_first", "exploration": false, "calibration": { "version": 1, "snapshot_sha256": "72f9ad174eb955c387b74b5fca758b176824438419ef2100033d8bb1e8777499", "settled": 7 } }, "candidates": [ { "id": "note-to-email-clarity-20260923", "run_id": "ap-20260923-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca", "rank": 0.8, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.15, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "email-yourself-intent-20260923", "reason": "Choose the self-email product guide over an additional email-yourself blog refresh: its observed 549 impressions and 10 clicks represent qualified intent and the visible page still promises inevitable noticing, zero management and completion. At a hypothetical 3 percent CTR its fixed volume allows about 6.47 additional clicks per 28 days, not a forecast or profit. The competing blog has 632 impressions and 10 clicks but already explains setup and receipt checks. Limit implementation plus validation to 90 minutes; no new paid service, actual Codex dollars unavailable. Do not use the zero AIO citation sample as proof of cause or expected conversion." }, "touches": [ "note-to-email/index.html", "sitemap-ja.xml", "data/distribution-queue.json", "docs/story-seeds.md", "growth/experiments/experiments.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "autopilot/index.html", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md" ], "max_changed_lines": 1500, "max_binary_bytes": 0, "predicted_usd": 10, "lane": "D", "kind": "article", "action": "refresh", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "reversibility_class": "R1", "evidence_date": "2026-09-23", "scope": "content", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "72f9ad174eb955c387b74b5fca758b176824438419ef2100033d8bb1e8777499", "reason": "Five publishing-day settlements have mean Brier .2935: .30 predicted one success; .70/.55/.35/.25 were failures. Keep p=.15 for next-day continuity because the original actions repair stop remains; this is neither same-day shipment nor SEO uplift. The separate frozen GSC plan handles business observation. Rank prioritizes qualified intent and verifiable corrections, not the operating metric. Planning allowance 10 USD is not measured Codex cost, which is unavailable." }, "company_decision": { "schema_version": 1, "company_run_id": "d6d5399f-13b7-4e96-9e53-0d2b24527a13", "sha256": "69dbbd4a3db2ee1bfa8197a23c01e018b5564c731c4b0d49120b57422c48a799" }, "rank_gap": 0.30000000000000004 }, { "id": "email-yourself-intent-20260923", "run_id": "ap-20260923-owner-session-codex-01a0c887-1b38-7d33-8694-32aef889cdca", "rank": 0.5, "metric": "publishing_day_rate", "predicted_delta": 1, "p": 0.15, "horizon_days": 1, "counterfactual": { "id": "note-to-email-clarity-20260923", "reason": "Choose the self-email product guide over an additional email-yourself blog refresh: its observed 549 impressions and 10 clicks represent qualified intent and the visible page still promises inevitable noticing, zero management and completion. At a hypothetical 3 percent CTR its fixed volume allows about 6.47 additional clicks per 28 days, not a forecast or profit. The competing blog has 632 impressions and 10 clicks but already explains setup and receipt checks. Limit implementation plus validation to 90 minutes; no new paid service, actual Codex dollars unavailable. Do not use the zero AIO citation sample as proof of cause or expected conversion." }, "touches": [ "blog/email-yourself-memo.html", "sitemap-ja.xml", "data/distribution-queue.json", "docs/story-seeds.md", "growth/experiments/experiments.json", "data/autopilot-runs.json", "data/autopilot-status.json", "autopilot/index.html", "docs/obsidian/AUTOPILOT_LOG.md" ], "max_changed_lines": 1500, "max_binary_bytes": 0, "predicted_usd": 10, "lane": "D", "kind": "article", "action": "refresh", "domain": "サイトコンテンツの新設・更新", "reversibility_class": "R1", "evidence_date": "2026-09-23", "scope": "content", "calibration": { "snapshot_sha256": "72f9ad174eb955c387b74b5fca758b176824438419ef2100033d8bb1e8777499", "reason": "Five publishing-day settlements have mean Brier .2935: .30 predicted one success; .70/.55/.35/.25 were failures. Keep p=.15 for next-day continuity because the original actions repair stop remains; this is neither same-day shipment nor SEO uplift. The separate frozen GSC plan handles business observation. Rank prioritizes qualified intent and verifiable corrections, not the operating metric. Planning allowance 10 USD is not measured Codex cost, which is unavailable." }, "rank_gap": 0.30000000000000004 } ] }, "delivery": { "verified": true, "intent_hash": "6c0a1c5e10fc9c91e53848dcb52972446e8817bef24fc81a7039b7fc74eff927", "merge_sha": "407bf5a3bb412a087c92d066ba97f3ae6d9d92a7", "declaration_sha": "f69196a6f25965261cb1af20713e0131dce8e390", "deployed_at": "2026-09-22T16:12:16Z", "deployment_url": "https://dash.cloudflare.com/?to=/6f37d8ca103aa4af6a3722fc3c3e1ef6/pages/view/simplememo/88a1eb46-449f-4225-b221-728ea5247327", "pr": 1534 }, "settlement": { "state": "pending", "due_after_jst": "2026-09-24" } } ] }